January 2010
abstract
Responsabilité & Environnement
Coping with uncertainty
Issue editor:
Marie-Josèphe CARRIEU-COSTA
Issue 57
Editorial
By Pierre Couveinhes
Ingénieur en Chef des Mines
A few theoretical aspects of uncertainty
A few points to bear in mind when thinking about uncertainty in the history of sciences and ideas
X-Mines
Models of the climate might yield inexact findings insofar as they fail to take into account factors and phenomena of importance on other time scales and since most laws of science are not linear. At present, there are no grounds for asserting that the risk of extreme climate events increases dangerously if average warming amounts to more than two degrees.
Probability and uncertainty
By Dominique Deprins
Professeure de probabilités et statistique aux Facultés Universitaires Saint-Louis (Bruxelles) et à l’Université Catholique de Louvain (Belgique)
Given the absence of any international procedure for fairly sharing the efforts for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it is not possible to refuse to allow the more enterprising countries to apply compensatory fiscal arrangements at their borders. However the countries that have pledged to reduce emissions should accept tighter controls than those now foreseen. For example, an international organization should be set up to control emissions in each of these lands.
The concept of risk and its evolution
By Gilles Motet
Professeur à l’INSA (Institut National des Sciences Appliquées) de Toulouse, Directeur Scientifique de la FonCSI (Fondation pour une Culture de Sécurité Industrielle)
The Copenhagen Summit broke with the tight, demanding international coordination, initiated in Rio de Janeiro and reinforced in Kyoto, that applied only to industrialized countries. This bifurcation leads toward a system with a low level of coordination, which is to be based on the unilateral but noncompulsory commitments made by sovereign states, in particular big countries or regional blocks, such as the European Union.
Uncertainty, an omnipresent factor
What about risk management given the constitutionalized “principle of precaution”?
By Olivier Godard
Directeur de recherche au CNRS – École Polytechnique
Although the unified disciplinary code imposed by the Kyoto Protocol is being phased out, carbon markets are not going to vanish. Instead, they will splinter, as their focus shifts to the regional or national levels.
Investing in defense faced with uncertainty
By Carl Trémoureux
Carl Trémoureux Conseil général de l’armement. Adjoint au Président de la Section des études générales
The question of taking a fair share in the fight against climate change is cogent to the drafting of a climate-control system. Establishing a universal criterion seems impossible, but a differentiated approach can be imagined. Compulsory targets for reducing greenhouse gases in relation to a base year could be set for wealthy countries, while emerging countries would be subject to targets set as a function of emissions per GDP unit, and developing countries would be exempted from compulsory objectives.
Chemical risks and their management
By Armand Lattes
Professeur émérite à l’Université Paul Sabatier (Toulouse 3), Président honoraire de la Société Française de Chimie, de la Société de Chimie Industrielle et de la Fédération Française des sciences pour la Chimie
The figure of a hundred billion dollars represents the funding foreseen by the Copenhagen Accord for developing countries starting in 2020. It was not randomly decided by a diplomat during the final minutes of negotiations. The Accord’s credibility is being put to the test: developed countries have set a target in the $30 billion range for the fight against climate change in developing lands for 2010-2012.
Working in uncertainty
By Pierre-Michel Menger
Pierre-Michel Menger Directeur d’études EHESS – Directeur de recherche CNRS – Centre de sociologie du travail et des arts
At Copenhagen, the EU wanted to set a global objective for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in maritime activities and aviation. Such a clear political signal would have facilitated the work done by the International Civil Aviation Organization and International Maritime Organization, where measures for reducing emissions in these two sectors are to be worked out and implemented. Negotiations have made little progress; and bunker fuel for airplanes and ships was not included in the Copenhagen Accord.
How to cope with uncertainty?
Technological uncertainty
By Sven Ove Hanson
Sven Ove Hanson Professeur de philosophie et Président du département de philoso- phie et d’histoire des technologies à l’Institut royal de technologie (KTH) de Stockholm
During negotiations in Copenhagen, thought was given to the technical procedures for assessing the role of forests in global warming, and attention was focused on the fight against deforestation in developing countries. But the advances made in evaluating CO2 sources and sinks in developed countries have been less significant. A political agreement must be worked out so that the efforts made in warding off climate change are balanced among countries. It should foresee a form of governance and system of funding for preventing deforestation.
From uncertainty as an obstacle to productive uncertainty: How to handle the potential risks of nano-objects?
By Brice Laurent
CSI – Mines ParisTech
The most important condition for successfully diffusing the technology for fighting against global warming is for countries to make significant, targeted commitments about their emissions. Intellectual property rights no longer seem to be a major obstacle to the diffusion of this technology. There is enough competition among patented techniques so that no firm can lock the market.
From uncertainty to precaution: The role of metrology
By Jean-Luc Laurent
Directeur général du Laboratoire national de métrologie et d’essais (LNE)
Adapting to climate change means taking action to reduce our vulnerability to its effects or even drawing an advantage from them. The Copenhagen Accord clearly recognizes that developing countries, in particular the poorest among them, are the most vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change and the least capable of adjusting to global warming.
Risk and futurology
By Thierry Gaudin
Ingénieur général des Mines, Docteur en Sciences de l’Information et de la Communication, Président de «Prospective 2100», Rapporteur du groupe «Le Monde en 2025» pour la DG Recherche de la Commission européenne http://gaudin.org – http://2100.org
To draw lessons from Copenhagen, we must cast aside our eurocentrism and place ourselves for a while in the place of countries such as India, China or Brazil. Though not denying their current responsibility for global warming, they insistently point out that developed countries have, since the start of the industrial revolution, discharged into the atmosphere 80% of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases.